Sunday, April 27, 2008

the columnist who shorted BIDU again

Remember there is a columnist in a chinese newspaper in Toronto who (paper trade) and shorted Baidu at $180, held and saw BIDU hit $429, then only to cover the short at around $330? This same guy shorted BIDU again in his newspaper paper trading account at around $300 about 2 weeks ago, and now he covered at $360. He said there was an email kicked his ass by saying that he pretends he is a professional, but no real knowledge on investing/trading. He didn't post the whole email there, but he posted 2 other emails that paid high respect to his analysis.

I don't know how many emails this guy received, and it doesn't matter that the comments are good or bad. But it's funny that I found being a columnist is actually very easy. One of the email he posted said his analysis is good and meaningful, and losing money can happen to anyone anytime, so losing money is not an issue, who can say this columnist cannot make back all the money he lost in the future?

I assume this email is real, but sounds like it's somebody who take "money" as evil or garbage, so, it doesn't matter if we lose them. Yes, who cannot say he cannot make it back, but as well, who can guarantee he can definitely make it back??

He covered his position at $360, a loss of 20% in about 2 weeks. If you went back to the column when he said he will short BIDU at around $300, you'll see he didn't really give much strong reason or analysis to back his decision. He just said BIDU went up fiercely in 2 weeks from about $200 to $300, the sharp increase in a short time period can also serve as a reason to drop sharply very quickly. Well, what a reason. I totally don't know this can be consider as an "analysis".

This columnist from time to time will tell people that he already knew subprime could create a very big problem, however, didn't really see him do anything to take advantage of it. No wonder he can only write column in a newspaper but not a fund manager. This guy also will tease himself in the column, of course he is not really teasing himself, he just wants to separate himself from the general public to show that he is different than other people. This guy is too funny, not much more reliable than Jim Cramer.

I made mistake too. In the meantime I consider I didn't sell the SDD as a mistake. I should have sold it when it first rebounded or at least second rebound to $80. Now i'm sitting at about 13% loss, really need to think about what to do.

DGP as well, I should have sold like I talked about SDD above, then I should have limited my loss below 10%. Oil was going up so much so fast but gold was not moving and I should know that gold is relatively weak now.

So many bad news about oil, but I still think oil cannot just keep going up, it has to take a rest, and i think $120 is a good chance that it will retreat before it can go up further. But given my entry point of HOD.TO was not very good, probably I won't make much money on it.

Finally got some LOR, but since the market is still weak (stocks go up because bad news is not as bad as they originally thought, but not much good news), i better take a deeper look before i want to commit more money to ETFs like that.

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