Friday, April 18, 2008

why did market go up?

i forgot to say i bought HFU.TO at $13.75 on Tuesday, probably i was too busy on other stuffs and too tired.....

on the other hand i sold HFU.TO at $15.04 and URE at $36.37 today. i missed the best chance to sell URE in the morning (because i was in stupid and boring meeting in office), then i was a bit hesitate in the afternoon while URE was still trading around $37.50. i should have known that after a very bullish week we should trim back position on such a Friday. Well you know more every time you make a decision, right or wrong. At least i'm glad that i still made money on it, though both positions were a bit shy of 10% (in less than a week).

I was quite disappointed about SDD and DGP though. I should have sold SDD earlier when it went back to a bit below $80. I should sold it like I sold SRS and SKF to cut my loss. You wonder how did i come up with the decision to cut those ultra short position? that's because i saw the 20-day EMA of these ETFs (or on the other hand the 20-day EMA of the ultra long ETFs) made a lower high (a higher low). As well, the 20-day EMA has been diverged from the 200-day EMA by quite a lot. As i said, even if things will go down in a longer term, nothing will just go down in a straight line, specially a ETF, not individual stock.

DGP is another disappointment due to 2 problems. The first one, oil is making new high but gold is not moving. Sooner or later after I trim this position i will go for oil for US dollar-play instead of gold. i will still go for gold by a bit but won't be large position. The second problem, I don't see if this ETF is paying me interest/dividends, i wonder if this is priced in the ETF price or what. anyway, can't figure that out.

people are wondering how come market is going up with such big write-offs from financials? i don't think i have a very clear reason, I just tried to react to what I saw, and so far other than UYG I handled that pretty okay. Sometimes you need to get what market gives you before you ask too many questions, otherwise you will miss the chance.

Now that by end of the day I got back into SKF at $102.64, a small position. After a very good week of rally I guess the market needs to relax a bit. Anyway I still have my UYG so I'm actually hedged at this point, but UYG is an ultra long that I can always hold longer if you believe market eventually will go back up.

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