Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Go short again

Market started to drop again, nice. Because I got into SKF last Thursday at $104.50. It went down to as low as $93-ish in Friday, now I'm more than breakeven at $105.39 so far.

As well, got into TWM, HXD.TO and HBU.TO this morning. The 3 short positions worth about bit less than 20% of my total portfolio. Feel a little regret not getting a bit more because I have other funds and now the HBU.TO which represent closed to 40%. Given that I have a bear view myself I should have more short side than long side. Will keep an eye on what should I do next.

Just looking at the percentage of drop today it actually dropped quite a lot even compared to those daily drops in January. Given this kind of market action I'm not surprise there will be another round of V-shaped movement in the coming days. I guess it's not easy to time the perfect entry time. But stay cash or short sounds like the way to go.

Funny still saw a few articles talk about the credit problem is small and contained in sub-prime. Either these people mean to fool you or they are really stupid. Sounds like these people will only acknowledge the market is going down after the market drops another 20%. I don't mean I am much smarter than they do, nor I know more detail information than everyone. Just that looking at how the market reacted to the news and statistics you know some big players smell fire. Ask any (smart) trader on the street and you should get the same answer: react before you ask question. When something strange is happening, find a way to protect your capital first, ask the question later. It will never hurt that you only know what was wrong after it is done. But if you stay there and not reacting until you fully know what was wrong probably it's too late.

Learn from 911. When a plane crashes into the building, evacuate first, investigate how a plane crashed to the building later.

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