Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Worst time in history?

I read another article today which I think it's very misleading.

I am not going to go through all the content of that article here. My belief is, the author thinks, considering the current credit situation and market crash as the "worst" in history is stupid because market always recover.

Market always recover, it is true, but this idea does not connect to each individual. Imagine if you buy a house and it's very expensive, eventually economy cools down and you don't have enough to pay for mortgage. Your house is foreclosed and you are done. Years later the market recovers and your original house now worth more than the time you bought it. But will that benefit you? Of course not! Because you were foreclosed.

If I need this author to tell me "the market will eventually cover", I AM NO SMARTER THAN A GRADE 5! I bet this author doesn't really know what he wants to say. In his article he quoted Legg Mason's CEO's statement that "it's the worst credit state he has ever seen in 47 years of business", and then the author said 30 years of experience is a blink of history. WHAT THE FUCK, if you take a look at the author's picture, I bet he doesn't live 47 years in his life. But he is criticizing about other people's 47-years of experience based on his bull-shit.

The current market may recover in 3 months or in 3 years, I don't know. Writing an article telling people that market will eventually recover is bullshit. As well, look at Nikkei 225 in Japan, look at Nasdaq Composite. Have they recovered??? I bet there might be some people in the past that thought Nikkei dropped 50% from almost 40,000 to 20,000 was a good buy (because market eventually will recover), only to see that it dropped more, and they have only limited time to sell above 20,000 around 1997. Then they went under water again and it's now sitting at about 13,500 after probably 18 years.

How many 18 years can you live? I bet not many. This article shows you how stupid and naive some people are, even people who write articles. Markets can exist forever, but you don't. Markets may recover, you may not live long enough to see it. Markets may recover, but it may not benefit you. Market recovers is an objective fact. What you own is your subjective measure.

I can bet you that if market starts to recover from here, this author will think he is a genius, he predicted the market correctly. Makes me throw. Based on the article he wrote, I believe this guy is inexperience and stupid.

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