Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Sane or insane?

I got a bit more FXP at $87, maybe I'm stupid, maybe I'm not.

I tried TWM as well but couldn't get filled, maybe I'm unlucky, maybe I'm not.

Market looks a bit funny. Anyway, funny may not be the good way, as market will go to where it is going, not where you want it to go, unless you have unlimited capacity to drive the market. I don't.

Market rallied with "good" news, if you consider injecting $3billion into Ambac is good news, if you consider IBM using $15 billion to repurchase its own shares is good news, if you consider banks freezed the foreclosures is good news. If you even consider the Fed will lower the rate during the next meeting then it's even better.

Well I read several articles about the Ambac news and I'm kind of agree with 3 points:

1. How can $3 billion help if their positions in credit default swap is as much as $60 billion?
2. Why would the insurance policyholder inject cash into the insurance company so that the insurance company can pay their insurance benefit is good news?
3. How can a company needs external cash injection to save itself can maintain AAA rating?

I need somebody to tell me if I'm wrong or the market is wrong. Or maybe it's just too much shorting since October so it's a mere short covering?

No comments: