Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Big increase today

But as I always say we need to see follow through, namely, steady normal volume, white candlestick and not making lower low.

I should have got into SSO in Monday morning or so, well too late to get in. In fact, I got into SKF at $117, SRS at $105.25, SDD at $81.50 and HFU.TO at $12.37. I guess I made two mistakes here (although I still think in general, what I was doing is rational, though may not be profitable).

The first mistake is, my 3 short positions are 3 times bigger than the long one. I think there maybe still a bit upside before the market may go down again, so I should at least initiate the long position almost as big as my short one. The little relief is, I already have some money in two mutual funds and Nintendo, so not as bad as it could be. In fact, Nintendo went up by 3.7% today, I am considering liquidating it because I said I'll try to focus on ETFs in the future but not individual stock, at least not individual stock before I confirm bull market myself.

The second mistake is I used market order for my long position and limit order on my short position. Although eventually it turned out okay because the market up big anyway. But I think I should enter all orders in one way instead of different. Otherwise I may enter into one position but not all position which made my portfolio skews to certain way that I don't want.

Anyway, the 3 short ETFs I entered almost at the lowest price as of today. As I said there maybe still a bit more upside, so in the meantime I will not increase my short position. Even if I want to do so I may want to go SDD or EEV. FXP, SKF or SRS is only a second choice.

All 4 major US indices ETFs (SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQQ) were more or less about the same place as beginning of March. Market dropped and then there was the $200 billion liquidity program. Market dropped again due to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and there was the rate cut. Will all these plans solve the problem? I don't know, I guess the follow through will tell me more.

On the other hand, DGP dropped all the way back to slightly below my entry price, quite disappointed. In the meantime I'll still adhere to my original idea that to add some more if gold back down to $950. I guess in the meantime gold will not trade exactly as the opposite direction of US dollar. So gotta to be very careful to consider adding or selling it.

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