Monday, March 17, 2008

BSC worth $2? Your guess

I don't know if it worths $2 or more or less, that's not the point here. The point is, betting on one single stock, either up or down is dangerous for individual investor. Since we are not insiders, have no non-public information, no way you can play this game smarter than the big boys.

BSC may shoot back up to the teens, LEH may strike back by a lot tomorrow as well (in fact, it did strike back by a lot from $20.50 to close above $30 already, quite a come back). I don't know the answer. I only know I'm not smarter than other people, particularly not the big boys, so I'll try to avoid BSC and LEH, and many other financials.

I'm not surprised that many ultra short ETFs today exhibited red candlesticks, that is, opened high and closed lower. Some indices/ETFs are now again sitting at January's low and some are sitting at below January's low. Unless there will be more bad news coming into the pipeline, otherwise, in a short term, I think the market will take a rest here. I don't think it will shoot up very high, nor I think it will tank by a lot.

Still holding my DGP. I guess people started to think gold went up too fast over the last few months. Oil started to come down and it comes down fast. It's expected as it went up too fast from $100 to $111. Gold probably dragged down by the oil trend too. So in the meantime gold will hove around $950 and $1,000 I think.

Okay back to financials. I guess in the meantime it's too much on the attention that it will totally collapse, I'll try to avoid ultra long or short financials here. Ultra short real estate I may think about that but will only put very little money.

What about China or emerging market? Well I may want to shift to ultra short emerging market than China, because shorting China at this time maybe a bit too much.

On the other hand, I start to think about ultra short mid cap and small cap, MZZ and SDD. Since some indices may be forming a W-bottom (at least for a short term), I may put a little money in the ultra long S&P 500, SSO. I still think this is just a bear rally so don't want to be aggressive.

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