weakness continues

I am not here to try to scare people who hold stocks, just check continuously what I saw on market.

In the meantime, the weakness continues. Even I checked on weekly EMAs, it doesn't make me believes the tide changes.

I still hear people fooling around with numbers and wordings. For example, refuse to use the word recession. I wonder how important it is. Sometimes government acts like your mutual fund advisor; try to make up a better word to make you feel better.

Or on the other hand, only if market drops 20% from its top is consider as bear market. Heck, but my friend, when you realized you are losing more than 20%, probably it's too late to sell. So why not just sit back and wait till the market to recover? At the end of the day, you hold whatever you hold and have not done anything. You may be smart (as market does bottom when people sell), but I can tell you that you are not smart, you are just lazy to do anything.

About a month ago I said we'll see if January marked the bottom of the market, well if you check enough charts you will see probably it's not the case. At least you should not expect a V-shaped rebound from here again. A few stocks, which are large in size, already made a lower low compared to January.

Some stocks performed a bit better, but still, couldn't pass my criteria that they changed direction. For example, XHB, it came back up from about $16 to more than $23 in less than a month of time. Quite impressive and a lot. It hasn't lost all the upside it made yet, sitting at around $19.50. However, check the EMAs, a better measure than daily price candlestick, you'll see its 20-day EMA didn't surpass the 100-day EMA. It just sat tangent to the 100-day EMA and started to trend down late last week. The hint, it is probably still not the right time for it to resume longer term uptrend.

Though not a perfect match, but if you originally expected the 20-day EMA would not surpass 100-day EMA in one try, utilizing SRS with a small amount could work. It's like last Tuesday I tried to put in order to buy TWM at $77.50 (unfortunately couldn't get filled.....) because i expected IWM probably couldn't break the 50-day EMA in its third try in a month.

You are right, it's based on my expectation. It may work out the way I want or it may not. You need to ask yourself if it doesn't work out at your first position, where is the next stop of the stock? Can you take that risk of losing more and not to sell too quickly?

A more mental challenge than a quantitative one.

Still holding FXP and HXD.TO and Nintendo