Saturday, March 15, 2008

Market confidence, what confidence?

So BSC collapsed. Well it's not a surprise that the Fed stepped up and provide helping hand again. There is a very good lesson to learn technical analysis here.

If you look back on Tuesday, market went up big, but BSC did not go up by much. In fact, its candlestick was red, meaning it went up to start with, only to go down to end. Look closer, it has been once dipped even below its Monday's low. Many stocks showed a white candlestick (although many eventually went back down to lower than Monday's low) with at least average 3-month volume. BSC showed a red candlestick with higher than normal volume. Then you saw the follow collapse on Wed, Thurs and Friday.

When market up big and a stock doesn't move, something must be wrong with that stock. You don't even need to know why, just avoid it or run if you are holding it.

Some news and columns are now saying that after these panic selling, market must be very close to a bottom. Well those are not panic selling at the first place, and I don't know if the selling is over. I guess the selling will only be over when all the di-leveraging completes.

Another piece of news I find very funny (and a bit stupid) is that, it says certain companies (in this case particularly banks) can go down to zero due to market loses confidence. Well, what's confidence??? I don't get it. Or you tell me as a bank, somebody borrowed money from me and now telling me he does not have money to repay me and I still have to trust that guy that he can pay me back in full? Be rational, if you are the bankers, what would you do? Trust that guy and extend the loan? No way, unless he puts up some collateral, which of course that guy has none.

If the bank sticks to its policy of lending, it definitely will call you for the money back, and stops lending money to suspicious customers. That is logic and rational. The bottom line is, you don't have collateral to put up, no proof of income, namely no credibility, why should I trust you?

Therefore, it's not about confidence, it's about no hard asset being put up as collateral. Otherwise, what about you go to casino to gamble with no money, but tell the casino that you will pay them back when you win, as you believe at some point, you will win. See what the casino will tell you.

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