Sunday, November 11, 2007

Where will market go?

Despite the 8.7% increase in my SVA, market was choppy on Friday. Strong stocks like GOOG, BIDU, AAPL and RIMM fell fast, came back a bit and fell fast again. Shorter term EMAs of SPY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM were all going downward with heavy volume.

So, where is market heading to? Well I would say in the short term it is hard for the market to go higher, it probably will either go down a bit more or channel between certain range. We should lower our entry points for strong stocks and wait for the market price to come to your entry point, not raise your entry point to catch the market price. For example, in the meantime I'll take the 20-week EMA as the first support of the strong stocks. Base on how strong the stock you believe, you can adjust from there.

Chinese stocks slowed down by a lot as well, as Chinese government wants them to slow down. After all, the Chinese government is not stupid to let the market crash and do nothing (not that mean they can perfectly prevent it from crashing). As said, if my SVA goes up too fast I'll sell and look for opportunity to buy it back.

U.S. financials did not stop going down, in fact, they speeded up last week, leaded by Citigroup, Merill Lynch, Wachovia and Washington Mutual. I'm still waiting for a good entry point to step in with some money, just that it sounds like it's still not the time yet. But if there happens a very strong down day with tons of selling, I think I'll kick in some money, that's the idea of "buy when blood on the street".

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