Monday, October 8, 2007

Apple (AAPL)

Apple definitely is one of the hot stocks these years. It is a very interesting turn-around story. We saw so many news and analysis covering Apple almost everyday. I personally didn't purchase any Apple's product as I don't think I need them, but I never ignore the opportunity to invest in company that provide chance of profitability.

I am not going to talk about fundamentals of Apple in here, you definitely can find more analysis somewhere else than from me. I am totally not good at fundamental analysis anyway. I look for a way to earn profit by investing in stocks, conducting thorough fundamental analysis is one way, but not the only way.

Apple survived the August selloff graphically well. And later it rallied with the market and made new highs. Unless its earnings report on Oct 22 is disappointing, otherwise the uptrend is still here.

Looking at the recent price movement it sounds like people are expecting very good earnings (and forecasts), good entry area should be around 20-day EMA (as end of today it's $150). The ratio between 20-day EMA and 200-day EMA is not very bad (about 30%). I don't know when the trend will end (and how it will end), but if the price moves up after the earnings, the trend should at least continue for some time.

Just for a longer term idea. Given that Apple is already having a market cap of over $140 billion, I guess it will take longer for Apple to double its size, unless it can show a significant increase in product lines and profit margin. I am not saying that it is impossible, but from a trend-following point of view, there should be better opportunity other than Apple that can provide a faster growth in price appreciation.

So, you can always keep your eye open to find the next winner.

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