Black Friday (Stock crash 20th anniversary)

It is so boring to talk about the stock crash 20 years ago (the Black Monday), so I'll skip it. The only thing I want to say is, it's good to learn from history. But what had happened 20 years ago can hardly make me to believe there is any meaningful impact on Friday's drop.

Maybe I was wrong just using daily graph, I'll now start to change to use with weekly graph. I was just thinking should I keep 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day, or change to use 20-week, 50-week, 100-week and 200-week. Anyway, I think I need to try with other signaling technique to help it out.

I still think my way of looking at the graph make sense, it's just that daily graph may provide too many buy-in signals but less firm signals. While using weekly graph may provide less signal but more firm signals. After all, more trades don't mean better return. If less trade can provide better return I should try it.

So I tried using weekly graph for the 4 positions I have. After changing to weekly graph, I got some different messages.

TASR, the weekly priced candlestick broke through all 4 weekly EMA with higher volume by May to July 2007. Currently we have all 4 weekly EMA one higher than another, the preferred graph pattern I look for. I did not enter too badly at $15.30, but not very good as well. The 20-week EMA is around $14.50 for now, will be the first support.

CEDC, I think a good entry point is anyway near the 20-week EMA line, so in this case I entered this one badly at $50.05, as by the time I bought the 20-week EMA was about $42. In the meantime the first support is still around $42, so if I don't cut my loss now I may see a loss of more than 15%.

LOCM, my half trend following my speculated position. It doesn't even have a 200-week EMA. In the meantime it is holding right above the 100-week EMA. The 20-week and 50-week are below the 100-week but coming up. I am expecting it to take baby step to go up, just given the current market sentiment, the chance of sparkling up is not very high.

Finally EFUT, it's a total speculated position. It only has 20-week and 50-week EMAs. The 20-week is currently sitting at around $17.50. If I don't cut my loss at 20% now I'm risking another 10% to test that. I want to test that now than later. At least I'm not very old, I still have time to earn those money back. In the meantime proving myself right or wrong is important.

So you see, I hold onto all 4 positions, which may prove very stupid. But I want to test my way of thinking sooner than later. Good luck to me.