Thursday, October 11, 2007

Market turns around

Market went wild today afternoon, declined suddenly. The news attributed the decline to statements made by European central bank official of price risk (namely, inflation risk). I'm not sure if inflation is (always) a risk, i believe risk and opportunity is two sides of the same coin.

Checking my holdings all day (mainly 3 trend-following type and 1 speculated type), they all dropped. Let me go through them one by one.


TASR did not drop below 20-day EMA, in fact, the decline stopped before it challenged the 20-day EMA, as well, with only a normal daily volume, which is a good sign of holding well. My profit shrank and i think to protect the profit, i'll move out if tomorrow it drops below the 20-day EMA with large volume.

CTRP is the worst of today. It dropped more than 12% at one point, only to recover to lose 8% with higher than normal volume. it dropped below the 20-day EMA and didn't come back out, not even close to the 20-day EMA. it did drop below the 50-day EMA at one point and quickly came back up, it looks like the support is now at 50-day EMA. I'm already sitting at a loss of about 8%, given that i'm fully invest in the meantime and it dropped with higher volume, i think i will set my stop loss at a 10% loss. How sad, it was supposed to be a strong position.

CEDC moved out pretty well in the morning, only to see it went back down to close at negative, but not by much with normal daily volume. As well, CEDC did drop slower than the market, as the market started to see red by about 2pm, CEDC only started to see red by 3pm. As well it didn't test the 50-day EMA (given that it was already below the 20-day EMA). I'm already sitting at a loss of 8%. With the insignificant volume and decline I think I want to keep it longer, unless it dropped more on high volume tomorrow.

The only speculated position is EFUT that I established yesterday. It was holding at around $25 in the morning, it dropped a bit but not significant. The stock then dropped with the market, but still not with significant volume (compared to the blast off since mid-Sept). The stock ended up right above the 200-day EMA, the highest EMA among the 4 I use. Since it is a speculated post, I already expected it will be quite fluctuate. I just didn't expect that it fluctuated due to what European Centre Bank has said. I think a 20% drop will be my maximum, which is about $20 (right at the 20-day EMA now).

Tomorrow will be interesting.

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